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Periodical article | Leiden University catalogue | WorldCat |
Title: | South Africa's Futures: Probable Developments in the Medium Term |
Author: | Schlemmer, Lawrence |
Year: | 1989 |
Periodical: | South Africa International |
Volume: | 20 |
Issue: | 2 |
Period: | October |
Pages: | 63-73 |
Language: | English |
Geographic term: | South Africa |
Subjects: | future political change Politics and Government |
Abstract: | In South Africa, both the State and the private economy have weathered the massive rebellions of 1960/1961, 1976/1977 and 1984 to 1987. Any analysis of future developments in South Africa must take into account the persistence of its institutional structures. This article analyses eight political pathways to the future: gradual reform and adaptation of the present system - preemptive political reform and controlled negotiation - a political swing to the right - an executive cum 'security' coup - coalition for negotiation - a political swing to the left - externally sponsored negotiations - fragmentation and reconsolidation on the right. Grouping the pathway developments in terms of similar outcomes suggests that the following scenarios are realistically possible by the year 2000. Scenario 1 (pathway 1), an extension of the status quo: the government will be multiracial and critics will call it cooptive. Scenario 2 (pathways 2, 5, 6, and 7), various possible internal and external pressures leading towards negotiation will have drawn the ANC and its extraparliamentary allies into a settlement process by the year 2000. Scenario 3 (pathways 3 and 8), the right-wing formations come to power and constitute a new regime of separation. Scenario 4 (pathway 4) could arise due to a fragmentation of authority or failed attempts at negotiation, with mixed consequences. |