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| Title: | An intelligence model of national security assessment for Nigeria: reflections from the South African entente with Equitorial Guinea |
| Author: | Ogba, Leo Oko |
| Year: | 1989 |
| Periodical: | Nigerian Journal of International Affairs |
| Volume: | 15 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Pages: | 31-46 |
| Language: | English |
| Geographic terms: | Nigeria South Africa |
| Subjects: | foreign policy intelligence services |
| Abstract: | In analysing Nigeria's security interests as they affect South Africa, many continue to focus on South Africa's short-term threats and gains rather than on her long-term penetrations which create permanent vulnerabilities against Nigeria. The present author shows how South Africa's changing regional strategy affects Nigeria's national security by reflecting on South Africa's recent entente with Equatorial Guinea. He demonstrates how South Africa's new policy of growing entente with micro-States of Africa represents a deceptive long-term strategic goal, calculated to exploit and build up intelligence capabilities against Nigeria and other key African States. The end point for South Africa is the enhancement of its predictable knowledge of the expected responses of Nigeria against the apartheid system's last, aggressive 'battle' for survival. The author concludes that since South Africa's new policy of entente with micro-States does not represent a tactical military attack against Nigeria, appropriate response need not lead to an escalation of the arms race in the region, but rather a better defined involvement of the Nigerian people in Nigeria's national security, through a well coordinated counterintelligence operation at the human espionage level. Notes, ref. |