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| Title: | The Effects of Systematic and Surprise Fiscal Policy Actions in a Developing Economy: Evidence from Nigeria |
| Author: | Odedokun, M.O. |
| Year: | 1989 |
| Periodical: | Eastern Africa Economic Review |
| Volume: | 5 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Period: | December |
| Pages: | 122-132 |
| Language: | English |
| Notes: | biblio. refs. |
| Geographic terms: | Nigeria West Africa |
| Subjects: | fiscal policy productivity Economics and Trade Politics and Government Economics, Commerce Macroeconomics |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the macroeconomic issue maintained by the rational expectations school of thought that anticipated fiscal policy has no effect on real outputs whereas unanticipated fiscal policy does. The test was conducted using annual data for Nigeria over the period 1962 to 1986. Two fiscal policy actions separately considered were government expenditure and public internal debt, each of which was decomposed into the anticipated and unanticipated components. The effects of these anticipated and unanticipated policy actions on four categories of real output, viz. manufacturing, real estate and construction, GDP less primary production, and overall GDP, were evaluated. The findings contradict the position of the rational expectations school as cyclical movements in each of the four real output categories were better explained by anticipated fiscal policy actions. The scope for discretionary fiscal policy is therefore unshaken. Bibliogr., note. (Also published, under a slightly different title, in: Eastern Africa Economic Review. New Series, vol. 7, no. 1 (1991), p. 1-11.) |