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 Periodical article |
 Leiden University catalogue |
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| Title: | The Ethiopian Crisis: Alternative Scenarios for Change |
| Author: | Harbeson, John W. |
| Year: | 1990 |
| Periodical: | Horn of Africa |
| Volume: | 13 |
| Issue: | 3-4; 14 #1-2 |
| Pages: | 121-131 |
| Language: | English |
| Geographic terms: | Ethiopia Eritrea |
| Subjects: | separatism Politics and Government nationalism History and Exploration |
| Abstract: | This is an analysis of alternative scenarios for the course of politics in the Horn of Africa, particularly focusing on Ethiopia. It proceeds by constructing those alternative scenarios on the basis of as many of the variables at work in the situation as possible, beginning with a formulation of the basic problem as the author understands it, and continuing with what he takes to be the present state of affairs. The fundamental problem is the political definition of Ethiopia. Here one cannot escape a choice between one meaning that includes Eritrea and Tigre, and thus seems to favour the Mengistu regime, and one that does not, which liberation movements in Eritrea, at least, would prefer. Under scenario one ('Limited accommodation', the most likely one according to the author), Mengistu stays or is replaced by another officer or group of officers; scenario two implies a regime change, while under scenario three the Mengistu regime collapses or is overthrown but no regime is able to claim authority immediately. The author is of the opinion that the bases for substantive negotiations do exist. While some negotiations may be possible with Mengistu remaining in power, he does think that Mengistu's departure is the single most important key to real negotiations. Negotiations with someone other than Mengistu would centre not only on independence or autonomy for Eritrea, but on moderation and flexibility in implementing major socioeconomic change. Bibliogr. |