Previous page | New search |
The free AfricaBib App for Android is available here
Periodical article | Leiden University catalogue | WorldCat |
Title: | A Spurious Correlation of r=.70: or Historiodemographe, Modere tes Transports! |
Author: | Fetter, Bruce S. |
Year: | 1988 |
Periodical: | History in Africa |
Volume: | 15 |
Pages: | 253-260 |
Language: | English |
Geographic term: | Malawi |
Subjects: | demography mortality Miscellaneous (i.e. Demography, Refugees, Sports) History and Exploration Education and Oral Traditions |
External link: | https://www.jstor.org/stable/3171862 |
Abstract: | On the basis of a statistical analysis of data derived from the Roll Books of the Overtoun Institution, the elite school for the Livingstonia Mission in Malawi, for the years 1895-1927, the author calculated male mortality rates and the incidence of theological infractions. Over a period of 29 years, the averaged infraction statistics correlated significantly (r=.70) with the averaged mortality for school leavers two years later. The correlation for the raw rates, however, was substantially lower (r=.39). The calculation of five-year rolling averages had introduced a substantial distortion in the mortality pattern. This case shows one of the pitfalls of relying on generalizations, when primary information is also available. It is not a plea for a return to historical positivism, but rather a warning against pushing generalizations beyond their applicability. Ref. |