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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:A Spurious Correlation of r=.70: or Historiodemographe, Modere tes Transports!
Author:Fetter, Bruce S.ISNI
Year:1988
Periodical:History in Africa
Volume:15
Pages:253-260
Language:English
Geographic term:Malawi
Subjects:demography
mortality
Miscellaneous (i.e. Demography, Refugees, Sports)
History and Exploration
Education and Oral Traditions
External link:https://www.jstor.org/stable/3171862
Abstract:On the basis of a statistical analysis of data derived from the Roll Books of the Overtoun Institution, the elite school for the Livingstonia Mission in Malawi, for the years 1895-1927, the author calculated male mortality rates and the incidence of theological infractions. Over a period of 29 years, the averaged infraction statistics correlated significantly (r=.70) with the averaged mortality for school leavers two years later. The correlation for the raw rates, however, was substantially lower (r=.39). The calculation of five-year rolling averages had introduced a substantial distortion in the mortality pattern. This case shows one of the pitfalls of relying on generalizations, when primary information is also available. It is not a plea for a return to historical positivism, but rather a warning against pushing generalizations beyond their applicability. Ref.
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