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Title:Towards a forecasting model of gasoline demand in Nigeria: a spatial approach
Author:Ikporukpo, C.O.
Periodical:The Nigerian Geographical Journal
Geographic term:Nigeria
Subjects:supply and demand
petroleum products
Abstract:This paper is concerned with building a reasonably accurate model which may be employed in predicting the future demand for gasoline in different consumption centres in Nigeria. Data on different aspects of the gasoline industry and the socioeconomic and geographical characteristics of consumption centres were collected for a sample of fifty-two towns over a period of four years (1971-1974). These sample towns, which provide an adequate geographical spread over the country, accounted for about 91 percent of the total gasoline consumed in Nigeria in 1974. The author analyses the various problems related to forecasts, especially the issue raised by a change in model structure. Theil's inequality and a correlation analysis indicate that the model is fairly efficient. However, the basic assumption of 'other things being equal' remains necessary for forecasts to be meaningful. Bibliogr., notes, ref.