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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:Tax Revenue Instability, with Particular Reference to Sub-Saharan Africa
Authors:Bleaney, MichaelISNI
Gemmell, NormanISNI
Greenaway, DavidISNI
Year:1995
Periodical:Journal of Development Studies
Volume:31
Issue:6
Period:August
Pages:883-902
Language:English
Geographic term:Subsaharan Africa
Subjects:public revenue
taxation
Economics and Trade
External link:https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389508422395
Abstract:This article examines the temporal instability of tax revenues across a sample of developed and less developed countries. It is shown that instability is especially high in LDCs and is highest in open economies with low per capita income, high output variance and inflationary problems. Even allowing for these factors, revenue instability appears to be particularly high in sub-Saharan Africa. Revenue instability can be expected, via the government budget constraint, to be associated with expenditure instability and/or instability in the sources of deficit finance. Cross-section evidence for LDCs confirms that countries with high tax revenue instability tend also to have high expenditure instability. Time-series evidence for six African countries (Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Swaziland and Zambia), however, suggests that revenues and expenditures do not move together in a uniform manner, and the direction of causality is generally ambiguous. There is some evidence, however, that foreign borrowing is used more to finance expenditure increases than to counteract revenue shortfalls. Bibliogr., notes, ref., sum.
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