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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:Egypt's experience from CGE modeling: a critical review
Author:Lofgren, HansISNI
Year:1994
Periodical:L'Égypte contemporaine
Volume:85
Issue:437-438
Pages:133-158
Language:English
Geographic term:Egypt
Subjects:econometrics
economic policy
Abstract:This paper reviews Egypt's experience of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling based on Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) data since the mid-1970s with the aim of extracting lessons for the future application of CGE models to Egypt and other less developed countries. The author provides a detailed review of seven models, covering their data bases, key aspects of their structures (with regard to production, consumption, foreign trade, micro and macro closures), as well as policy simulations. The models reviewed were developed by Lance Taylor (1979), Eckaus, McCarthy and Mohie-Eldin (1979), Choucri and Lahiri (1983), Motaz Khorshid (1984), Jean-Jacques Dethier (1985), Ahmed, Bhattacharya, Grais and Pleskovic (1985), and Kheir-el-Din and El-Laithy (1990). The author concludes that so far the input to policymaking of these studies has been limited. There is an urgent need for more current and more extensive data, the application of more advanced models, and a broadening of the research base. In addition, most of the models suffer from shortcomings in accuracy and style, ranging from missing or unclear variable and parameter definitions to inconsistent equations, unspecified equation domains, and the absence of a complete mathematical statement. Bibliogr., notes, ref., sum.