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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:The response of agricultural output to external cyclical excitation: a brief comment on policy implication
Author:Masaya, T.R.
Year:1984
Periodical:The Zimbabwe Journal of Economics
Volume:1
Issue:2
Pages:31-38
Language:English
Geographic terms:Kenya
Zimbabwe
Subjects:rain
agricultural production
Abstract:This paper was originally presented at the Zimbabwe Economic Society Conference on Rural Development, June 8-10th, 1981 in Harare. Its aim then was to emphasise the point that although Zimbabwe and other African countries in Southern Africa were experiencing a bumper harvest following the 1980/81 heavy rains there was no assurance that this trend would continue during the following years. It was pointed out that, although several causes of the shortage of some agricultural commodities that several African countries had experienced have been suggested, the dominant factor in determining the level of agricultural production was rainfall. The hypothesis that rainfall was a dominant random excitation determining the response of agricultural production was examined by comparing results in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Although some of the predictions of this paper were conformed by the three-year drought in Zimbabwe and other African countries it is still the aim of the present paper to emphasise the findings of the research presented more than three and a half years ago. - App., notes, tab.