A macroeconomic forecasting model of Lesotho: preliminary estimates

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Periodical article

Title:	A macroeconomic forecasting model of Lesotho: preliminary estimates
Author:	Akano, Olasupo
Year:	1998
Periodical:	Lesotho Social Sciences Review (ISSN 1028-0790)
Volume:	4
Issue:	1
Period:	July
Pages:	35-50
Language:	English
Notes:	biblio. refs., ills.
Geographic terms:	Lesotho Southern Africa
Subjects:	economic models economic development Economics, Commerce econometrics Macroeconomics
Abstract:	As a result of Lesotho's historical experience during the apartheid period and its enclosure within the Republic of South Africa, the economy of the country has been heavily dependent not only on economic activities within South Africa but also on the wider international community. The objective of this paper is to model the structure of aggregate demand in Lesotho since the early 1970s and to use the postulated relationships to make short to medium-term projections of principal macroeconomic variables. The paper postulates an aggregate demand model that contains three behavioural equations and one identity. A major element of this four-equation model is the exogeneity of private investment and export of goods and services, both of which have been assumed to make vital contributions to the overall economic landscape of Lesotho. The procedure adopted was to make forecasts of endogenous variables over the 1993-1996 period under three possible scenarios: a pessimistic, a mean and an optimistic growth rate scenario. Bibliogr., ref., sum.