Analyzing Apartheid: How Accurate Were U.S. Intelligence Estimates of South Africa, 1948-94?

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Periodical article

Title:	Analyzing Apartheid: How Accurate Were U.S. Intelligence Estimates of South Africa, 1948-94?
Author:	Herbst, Jeffrey
Year:	2003
Periodical:	African Affairs: The Journal of the Royal African Society
Volume:	102
Issue:	406
Period:	January
Pages:	81-107
Language:	English
Geographic terms:	South Africa United States
Subjects:	apartheid intelligence services international relations Politics and Government Ethnic and Race Relations
External link:	https://www.jstor.org/stable/3518397
Abstract:	The domestic political situation in South Africa was an issue of concern for US policymakers, and thus for the American intelligence community, from 1948 to 1994. This paper uses recently declassified intelligence assessments of South Africa to evaluate how successful American analysts were in predicting the evolution of apartheid in the uncertain mediumterm. It argues that, contrary to much of the literature on US-South Africa relations specifically and American foreign policy more generally, the global superpower struggle did not prevent American intelligence officials from presenting their consumers - starting with the President - with a relatively accurate description of events in South Africa and with forecasts that were not noticeably different from other predictions, including those made by academics. Notes, ref. sum. [Journal abstract]