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Title:Analyzing Apartheid: How Accurate Were U.S. Intelligence Estimates of South Africa, 1948-94?
Author:Herbst, Jeffrey
Periodical:African Affairs: The Journal of the Royal African Society
Geographic terms:South Africa
United States
intelligence services
international relations
Politics and Government
Ethnic and Race Relations
External link:https://www.jstor.org/stable/3518397
Abstract:The domestic political situation in South Africa was an issue of concern for US policymakers, and thus for the American intelligence community, from 1948 to 1994. This paper uses recently declassified intelligence assessments of South Africa to evaluate how successful American analysts were in predicting the evolution of apartheid in the uncertain mediumterm. It argues that, contrary to much of the literature on US-South Africa relations specifically and American foreign policy more generally, the global superpower struggle did not prevent American intelligence officials from presenting their consumers - starting with the President - with a relatively accurate description of events in South Africa and with forecasts that were not noticeably different from other predictions, including those made by academics. Notes, ref. sum. [Journal abstract]