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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:Can Price Incentive to Smuggle Explain the Contraction of the Cocoa Supply in Ghana?
Author:Bulir, Ales
Year:2002
Periodical:Journal of African Economies
Volume:11
Issue:3
Period:September
Pages:413-439
Language:English
Geographic term:Ghana
Subjects:prices
cocoa
price policy
illicit trade
Economics and Trade
Agriculture, Natural Resources and the Environment
External link:https://jae.oxfordjournals.org/content/11/3/413.full.pdf
Abstract:From the early 1960s to the early 1980s, the officially recorded output of cocoa in Ghana declined by 60 percent. During the 1983-95 Economic Recovery Programme, however, the official output of cocoa doubled. Although these developments have inspired much empirical research, most of the studies have been unable to explain the medium-term persistence of cocoa output in remaining below its estimated capacity level. The paper argues that the price incentive to smuggle can explain as much as one half of the observed decline in official output from its trend and the subsequent recovery. A co-integration analysis and a dynamic error-correction model of cocoa supply support the analysis. Bibliogr., notes, ref., sum. [Journal abstract]
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