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Periodical article | Leiden University catalogue | WorldCat |
Title: | Population projections for Malawi and its regions, 1998-2023 |
Author: | Palamuleni, Martin E. |
Year: | 2007 |
Periodical: | African Sociological Review (ISSN 1027-4332) |
Volume: | 11 |
Issue: | 2 |
Pages: | 16-28 |
Language: | English |
Notes: | biblio. refs. |
Geographic terms: | Malawi Central Africa |
Subjects: | population growth AIDS demography Population forecasting |
External link: | https://www.jstor.org/stable/24487621 |
Abstract: | This paper critically evaluates the most recent population projections for Malawi prepared by the National Statistical Office and provides alternative projections. The Epidemic Projection Package (EPP) developed by UNAIDS and the Spectrum programme developed by the Futures Group were used to model the Malawian HIV epidemic, to project future trends in HIV/AIDS and population, and to estimate the demographic impact of AIDS. The national HIV prevalence surveys among pregnant women from 1985 to 2000 served as the data sets used to calibrate the input HIV prevalence values for the model, while demographic data obtained from the 1998 Malawi Population and Housing Census acted as a base for population projections. The results indicate that the population of Malawi will continue to grow despite the negative impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The population of Malawi is expected to increase from 9.92 million in 1998 to 13.52 million in 2010 and 16.84 million in 2020. The predicted future is sufficiently undesirable that it should serve to focus attention on implementing programmes today that address the negative impact of the ever-present rapid population growth. Bibliogr., note, sum. [Journal abstract, edited] |