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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:Synchronisation between South Africa and the U.S.: a structural dynamic factor analysis
Author:Kabundi, AlainISNI
Periodical:South African Journal of Economics
Geographic terms:South Africa
United States
Subjects:business cycles
international economic relations
External link:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2009.01200.x/pdf
Abstract:The author studies the synchronization of the South African and the US economies, notably the transmission channels through which supply and demand shocks from the US affect economic activity in South Africa. He finds, first, that US supply shocks are transmitted to South Africa through business confidence and imports of goods and services, while US demand shocks are transmitted via interest rates, stock prices, exports of goods and services, and real effective exchange rates. Second, there is a decrease in integration over time translated by a drop in synchronization of cycles. The impact of an increase in co-movement of GDP is outweighed by the structural reforms initiated by the government after the end of apartheid. Finally, the idiosyncratic component still plays an important role in the South African economy. Bibliogr., notes, ref., sum. [Journal abstract]