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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:An impact study of the economic partnership agreements in the six ACP regions
Authors:Fontagné, LionelISNI
Laborde, DavidISNI
Mitaritonna, CristinaISNI
Periodical:Journal of African Economies (ISSN 0963-8024)
Geographic term:Africa
Subjects:European Union
trade policy
trade agreements
international trade
public finance
External link:http://jae.oxfordjournals.org/content/20/2/179.full.pdf
Abstract:This article analyses the trade-related aspects of economic partnership agreement (EPA) negotiations for the six Africa-Caribbean-Pacific (ACP) negotiation groups including ECOWAS, CEMAC+, COMESA, SADC, CARIFORUM and Pacific. The authors use a partial equilibrium model, focusing on the demand side, at the HS6 level (covering 5,113 HS6 products). Two lists of sensitive products are constructed: focusing on the agricultural sectors and tariff revenue preservation. For the European Union (EU), EPAs must translate into 90 percent fully liberalized bilateral trade to be World Trade Organization compatible. The authors use this criterion to simulate EPAs for each negotiating regional block. ACP exports to the EU are forecast to be 10 percent higher with EPAs, than under the generalized system of preference 'Everything But Arms' option. ACP countries, especially African ones, are forecast to lose an average of 71 percent of tariff revenues on EU imports in the long run. Imports from other regions of the world will continue to provide tariff revenues. Thus, computing tariff revenue losses on total ACP imports, losses are only 25 percent on average over the long run and as low as 19 percent if the product lists are optimized. The final impact depends on the importance of tariffs in government revenue and on potential compensatory effects. However, this long-term and less visible effect will depend mainly on the capacity of each ACP country to reorganize its fiscal base. Bibliogr., notes, ref., sum. [Journal abstract]