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|Periodical article||Leiden University catalogue||WorldCat|
|Title:||Inflation forecasting in Angola: a fractional approach|
|Authors:||Barros, Carlos P.|
Gil-Alana, Luis A.
|Periodical:||African Development Review (ISSN 1467-8268)|
|Abstract:||This paper forecasts inflation in Angola with an ARFIMA (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) model. It is found that inflation in Angola is a highly persistent variable with an order of integration constrained between 0 and 1. Moreover, a structural break is found in August 1996. Using the second subsample for forecasting purposes, the results reveal that inflation will remain low, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained. Bibliogr., sum. [Journal abstract]|