An assessment of the 'democratic' coup theory: democratic trajectories in Africa, 1952-2012

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Periodical article

Title:	An assessment of the 'democratic' coup theory: democratic trajectories in Africa, 1952-2012
Author:	Powell, Jonathan M.
Year:	2014
Periodical:	African Security Review (ISSN 2154-0128)
Volume:	23
Issue:	3
Pages:	213-224
Language:	English
Geographic term:	Africa
Subjects:	coups d'état democratization political change
External link:	https://doi.org/10.1080/10246029.2014.926949
Abstract:	The Egyptian military's unconstitutional removal of President Mohamed Morsi has reignited a debate regarding the theory of the 'democratic coup'. Though coups are almost invariably condemned, many political observers and a few scholars have recently argued that coups can act as catalysts for democratisation. This paper empirically assesses the democratic coup hypothesis for Africa. Multivariate analyses from 1952 to 2012 suggest that coups statistically improve a country's democratisation prospects. Extensions of the model show that coups appear to be likely precursors for democratisation in staunchly authoritarian regimes and have become less likely to end democracy over time, and that their positive influence has strengthened since the end of the Cold War. As of 2012, countries that have experienced a recent coup are expected to be four times more likely to witness a democratic transition than those that have remained coup-free. Notes, ref., sum. [Journal abstract]