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Periodical article Periodical article Leiden University catalogue Leiden University catalogue WorldCat catalogue WorldCat
Title:The mystery of missing real spillovers in Southern Africa: some facts and possible explanations
Editor:Basdevant, Olivier
Periodical:South African Journal of Economics (ISSN 0038-2280)
Geographic term:Southern Africa
Subjects:economic development
international economic relations
economic models
External link:https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12101
Abstract:Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbours (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. The multiple interconnections suggest that South Africa's GDP growth rate should affect positively its neighbours'. However, the review of the available econometric evidence and the authors' panel growth regressions suggest that there is no strong evidence of real spillovers in the region after 1994, once global shocks are controlled for. More generally, the authors find no evidence of real spillovers from South Africa to the rest of the continent post-1994. They investigate the possible reasons for this lack of spillovers. Most importantly, the economies of South Africa and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa might have decoupled in the mid-1990s. That is when international sanctions on South Africa ended and the country re-integrated with the global economy, while growth in the rest of the continent accelerated due to a combination of domestic and external factors. Bibliogr., notes, ref., sum. [Journal abstract]